How every number is sourced

Methodology

AI Football's pitch is simple: every claim on the screen is backed by a number from a citable source. This page lists those sources, the formulas we publish, and what the model cannot see.

Primary data sources

FIFA rankings — fifa.com/fifa-world-ranking/men. April 2026 snapshot used for the published Group X-Rays.
Elo ratings — eloratings.net. Cited where Elo gives a better strength signal than the FIFA points system.
Club statistics (2025-26 season) — FBref. Goals, expected goals, progressive carries, shot-creating actions, pass completion under pressure.
Player profiles & transfer values — Wikipedia + Transfermarkt.
Match results & qualification paths — Wikipedia per-tournament pages.
Photos & flags — Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA, attributed in each video's attributions.json) and flagcdn.com for flags.

Stat-freeze dates

Sports data is alive — a stat-freeze date tells you what the model could see when the video shipped. Every published deep dive declares its freeze date in development.md.

Group X-Rays (A–H) — frozen at the December 5, 2025 draw plus the most recent FIFA monthly ranking before publication.
Golden Boot Race 2026 — frozen at the end of March 2026 international break.
Best XI from Pure Data (0007) — frozen at end of Big Five domestic season + completion of all confederation qualifiers (May 31, 2026).
$11B World Cup (0001 Economic Impact) — frozen at May 7, 2026 FIFA pricing update.

Published composite formulas

Best XI from Pure Data (0007)

Each position scored on a 100-point composite weighted as follows:

GK = 40% PSxG±/90 + 30% save% + 20% clean-sheet rate + 10% clearances/distribution

CB = 30% Tkl+Int/90 + 25% aerial duel% + 25% progressive passes/90 + 20% pass% under pressure

FB = 25% dribbles + 20% progressive carries + 25% crosses/key passes + 20% tackles + 10% F3 recoveries

CM = 30% progressive carries + 25% chance creation + 20% pass% under pressure + 15% tackles + 10% xG buildup

W = 30% non-penalty xG + 25% G+A/90 + 25% shot-creating actions + 20% successful dribbles

ST = 40% npxG/90 + 30% G+A/90 + 20% shot conversion% + 10% aerial duels

Eligibility: in a 2026 squad, 1,500+ club minutes in 2025-26, 5+ international appearances, not retired internationally.

Group strength claims

Where a group description on /groups/ says "widest rank spread", "highest combined rank", or "toughest by average rank", the underlying formula is:

RANK GAP = max(FIFA rank, 4 teams) − min(FIFA rank, 4 teams)

RANK SUM = sum of all four FIFA ranks (lower = stronger group on average)

AVG ELO = arithmetic mean of the four teams' Elo ratings (higher = tougher)

Each card declares which metric drives its label. April 2026 FIFA rankings are the basis for every published Group X-Ray.

R32 prediction model (Round-of-16 forecast)

A simple Elo-based win-probability model with home-advantage adjustments for matches in the three host countries. Methodology is open — Elo input, +30 for hosts in their own city, +15 for hosts in any host country.

What the model cannot see

Every published video discloses its biases on-screen. Sitewide, the recurring caveats are:

Big-Five league bias. Advanced statistics (npxG, shot-creating actions, progressive carries) are sparse for the Saudi Pro League, MLS, Brasileirão, and African / Asian leagues. Players in those leagues are systematically underweighted in composite scores.
Goalkeeper context. Keepers behind dominant defences face fewer high-quality shots and can score worse on post-shot expected goals, even when they are individually elite.
No "leadership" or "tournament experience" input. All composites are pure 2025-26 output. The model does not credit captaincy, finals played, or international tenure.
Minutes threshold. A 1,500-minute club minimum excludes players whose 2025-26 season was injury-shortened — even when their per-90 numbers are elite.
Stat-freeze cutoff. Final 26-man WC rosters are announced in early June. Anything after the freeze date listed for a given video is not yet visible to that video's analysis.

Errors and corrections

If a published number is wrong or out of date, file it in our bug tracker (repo issues) or email contact@aiftbl.com. We track corrections in the per-video development.md.

Last updated: 18 May 2026